Highlights

• • Market implies ~40.8% for Artemeva; our model estimates ~42.5%
• • Positive EV at current price: ~4.1% ROI

Pros

• + Substantial match experience and higher career win rate
• + Current odds (2.45) clear the minimum fair odds threshold (2.353) for our estimate

Cons

• - Both players have recent losses, creating form uncertainty
• - No head-to-head data and limited tournament-level context increase variance

Details

We find value backing Valeriia Artemeva at 2.45. The market implies Artemeva has ~40.8% chance (1/2.45) but our assessment gives her a higher win probability (~42.5%) based on a large experience advantage (1066 career matches, 559-507 record, ~52.5% career win rate) versus Gaia Squarcialupi's much smaller sample and lower career win rate (10-21, ~32.3%). Both players show recent losses, but Artemeva's extensive match experience, proven adaptability across surfaces including clay, and substantial sample size make her less volatile and more likely to outperform the market-implied probability. Using p = 0.425, EV = 0.425 * 2.45 - 1 = 0.04125 (about 4.1% ROI). The edge is modest and tempered by recent form and lack of H2H, so this is a selective value play rather than a strong prediction.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap and sample size in Artemeva's favor (1066 matches vs 31)
• • Career win-rate differential (Artemeva ~52.5% vs Squarcialupi ~32.3%)
• • Both players show recent losses, reducing form-based adjustments and supporting reliance on career metrics