Highlights

• • Book price implies 78.1% — we estimate ~82%
• • Experience and match volume strongly favor Strakhova

Pros

• + Clear experience and sample-size advantage
• + Current odds (1.28) provide a slight value edge versus our probability

Cons

• - Recent match snippets show losses for both players, introducing short-term form uncertainty
• - Edge is modest (small ROI) and upsets in tennis can occur

Details

The market price (1.28) implies a 78.1% chance for Valeriya Strakhova. Based on the provided profiles, Strakhova has a very large experience edge (1066 matches, 559-507) versus Ana Candiotto's limited sample (31 matches, 10-21). That experience and higher career win rate against a less-proven opponent suggests a true win probability materially above the market-implied level. Both players show recent losses in the provided short-form results, but the depth and longevity of Strakhova's career reduce variance and increase the probability she handles match pressure and varied conditions better than Candiotto. There are no reported injuries in the supplied data. Comparing our estimated 82.0% win probability to the market-implied 78.1% produces a small but positive edge at the current odds.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Strakhova 1066 matches vs Candiotto 31
• • Superior career win-rate and depth of match-play for Strakhova
• • No injuries reported in the provided research but limited recent form data for both