Highlights

• • Home priced at 1.25 implies 80% — we estimate 82% true chance
• • Edge is small but present due to experience and career-level gap

Pros

• + Clear experience and career-level advantage
• + Price (1.25) is above our minimum required odds (1.220) for positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is small; variance/upset risk remains
• - Recent form for both players includes losses and specific match conditions are unknown

Details

The market prices Valeriya Strakhova at 1.25 (implied 80.0%). We estimate Strakhova's true win probability at 82% based on a large experience and quality gap: Strakhova has a lengthy career (1066 matches, 559-507) and adaptability across surfaces, while Ana Candiotto is early in her career (31 matches, 10-21) with a markedly poorer win rate. Recent results show both with recent losses, but Strakhova's durability, broader surface history (clay/hard), and much larger sample size reduce variance risk versus the inexperienced Candiotto. Given that 1.25 offers implied probability below our estimate, there is a small value edge. We remain cautious because the edge is modest and short-term form/injury or local conditions (unknown) could swing outcomes.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Strakhova (1066 matches vs 31)
• • Career win-rate differential: Strakhova (~52%) vs Candiotto (~32%)
• • Market-implied probability (80%) is slightly lower than our estimated probability (82%)