Vanesa Sulcova vs Gabriela Skrabalova

Highlights

• • Market implies ~61% for Vanesa Sulcova at 1.64
• • Our conservative estimate (58%) yields negative expected value at current odds

Pros

• + Conservative approach avoids overestimating value with no research
• + Clear threshold (1.724) provided for when the price would become attractive

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty
• - If we have underestimated the favorite's chance, missed small positive edges are possible

Details

With no external data available, we take a conservative stance. The market-priced home moneyline of 1.64 implies ~61.0% probability. Absent form, surface, injury, or H2H information to justify an edge, we estimate Vanesa Sulcova's true win probability at 58.0%, below the market-implied 61.0%. At our estimate the current home price (1.64) does not offer positive expected value (EV = 0.58 * 1.64 - 1 = -0.049), so we do not recommend taking the favorite. To be profitable on the home side we would require decimal odds of at least 1.724 or higher given our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • No external match data available (form, surface, injuries, H2H) — we apply a conservative estimate
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.64) = ~61.0%; our conservative true probability = 58.0%
• • Small gap between market and our estimate leads to negative EV at current prices