Varvara Gracheva vs Tatiana Prozorova

Highlights

• • Research shows nearly identical profiles and recent form for both players
• • At our 45% estimated probability, current odds 2.81 yield a +26% expected return

Pros

• + Clear numerical value: EV is strongly positive at current odds
• + Surface and form in the provided data do not justify the heavy favorite pricing

Cons

• - Research is sparse and provides limited distinguishing information — higher model uncertainty
• - No H2H, ranking, injury, or conditioning details in the provided data to reinforce the edge

Details

We find value on Tatiana Prozorova at current decimal odds 2.81. The only concrete data in the research shows both players with identical career records (10-21) and recent play on hard courts, so there is no clear performance gap to justify the market pricing that heavily favors Varvara Gracheva (market-implied win prob ~69.4%). Given the parity in the available data, we estimate the true win probability for Prozorova at 45% and Gracheva at 55%. Using the standard EV formula (EV = p * odds - 1), Prozorova at 2.81 yields EV = 0.45 * 2.81 - 1 = 0.2645 (26.45% expected ROI per unit staked). The market therefore overprices Gracheva and underprices Prozorova, creating a clear value opportunity on the away side at the listed price.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) in the provided data — limited differentiation
• • Both have recent matches on hard courts, so surface does not favor one clearly
• • Market odds heavily favor the home player (implied ~69%), which is not supported by the limited research