Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Eala is ~85.5%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate is 85.0%, which requires odds ≥1.176 to be positive EV

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a strong favorite, reducing likelihood of a surprise
• + If additional reliable info (injury/withdrawal) emerges raising true probability, the price could become attractive

Cons

• - Current price is slightly below our break-even threshold — no positive expected value
• - Lack of match-specific data increases model uncertainty and risk of being wrong

Details

The market makes Alexandra Eala a heavy favorite at 1.17 (implied ~85.5%). With no external form, injury, surface or H2H data available, we adopt a conservative estimate of Eala's true win probability at 85.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.176; the current price of 1.17 is slightly worse than the break-even level, producing a marginal negative edge. Given the extremely thin margin and lack of independent information to justify a higher true probability, we do not find value and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors away (Eala) at 1.17, implying ~85.5% chance
• • No independent data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H to justify improving our probability estimate
• • Break-even odds for our conservative probability are ~1.176 — current price is slightly shorter