Highlights

• • Book implied probability for home is ~97%; our estimate for home is ~32%
• • At 13.0 the away selection returns an estimated EV of ~7.81 (per unit staked)

Pros

• + Huge positive expected value at the quoted 13.0 price based on provided performance data
• + Clear mismatch between documented form/win rate and market pricing

Cons

• - Opponent-specific data for YuXuan Luo is not provided; our estimate infers Luo's chance solely from Panshina's record
• - Sample size for Panshina is modest (31 matches) and there may be contextual factors (surface, injuries) not fully captured in the provided data

Details

We compare the market pricing to the player's documented performance. The market gives Varvara Panshina (home) decimal 1.03 => implied win probability 97.09%, and YuXuan Luo (away) 13.0 => implied 7.69%. From the provided profile, Panshina's career record is 10-21 across 31 matches (win rate 10/31 = 32.26%) with recent losses noted, which makes a ~32% true win probability for Panshina far more plausible than the market's ~97% figure. Translating that to Luo gives an estimated true win probability of ~67.74% (1 - 0.3226). At the quoted away price of 13.0 the expected value is extremely positive: EV = 0.677419 * 13.0 - 1 = 7.806. The market appears heavily mispriced in favor of Panshina; therefore we identify value backing the away player at current odds.

Key factors

• • Panshina career win rate is 10/31 (~32.3%), which contradicts the market's 97% implied probability
• • Recent documented results show losses, indicating current form is weak
• • Market odds are extremely skewed (1.03 vs 13.0), creating a large potential edge for the underdog