Highlights

• • Our estimated true win chance for Vendula is ~32.3% vs. market-implied ~93.9%
• • Break-even decimal odds to back Vendula are ~3.096, far above the current 1.065

Pros

• + Clear quantitative mismatch between implied market probability and Vendula's documented record
• + Decision errs on the side of caution given limited opponent data in the research

Cons

• - We lack any direct data on Kateryna Diatlova in the supplied research, adding uncertainty
• - If there are unreported factors (injury to Diatlova, walkover, or data errors) the market price could reflect information not in our dataset

Details

We estimate Vendula Valdmannova's true match-win probability at ~32.3% based on her career record (10–21, 31 matches) and recent form showing multiple losses; the market price (home 1.065, implied ~93.9%) is therefore massively overstating her chances. Using our probability, the break-even decimal price would be ~3.096; the current favorite price (1.065) yields a strongly negative expected value for backing Vendula. We have no independent data on Kateryna Diatlova from the provided research, which increases uncertainty, but there is no scenario in the supplied information where either side presents positive EV at the current quoted prices. Consequently we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Career win rate 10/31 ≈ 32.3% (baseline true probability)
• • Recent match results show multiple losses and limited positive form
• • Market price (home 1.065) implies an implausible ~93.9% win chance given available data