Highlights

• • Market implies 53.8% for Vendula at 1.86; our estimate is ~40%
• • Required decimal odds for value on Vendula are >= 2.500

Pros

• + We are using concrete recent form data for Vendula rather than market noise
• + Clear quantitative gap between market-implied probability and our assessment

Cons

• - No information provided about Giuliana Bestetti increases overall uncertainty
• - Small sample size and the player's short career span make probability estimates less precise

Details

We compare the market price (1.86 decimal => implied 53.76% win chance) to our assessment based on the available player data. Vendula Valdmannova's profile shows a short career window with a 10-21 record (31 matches) and very poor recent form (only 1 win in the recent sequence and multiple recent losses, including on hard and clay). Given that we have no opponent data to suggest a clear mismatch in Vendula's favor, we estimate her true win probability substantially below the market-implied probability. Using our estimated probability (40%), the current price (1.86) produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.40 * 1.86 - 1 = -0.256), so there is no value in backing Vendula at the quoted price. Because both sides are offered at the same price and we lack reliable information about Giuliana Bestetti, we cannot identify a value bet on the away side either. We therefore recommend no bet unless a better price (>= 2.500 decimal for Vendula) or additional actionable information on Bestetti appears.

Key factors

• • Vendula Valdmannova's poor recent form and 10-21 career record (31 matches)
• • Market-implied probability (1.86 => 53.76%) materially exceeds our estimated true probability (40%)
• • Lack of any opponent (Giuliana Bestetti) data prevents identification of compensating value on the away side