Veronika Erjavec vs Alina Charaeva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Alina Charaeva at 2.6 because the market overprices the favorite relative to the symmetric profiles; at an estimated 48% win chance the away price yields ~+0.248 EV.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.521) ≈ 65.7% — appears overstated given provided data
- • Away at 2.6 implies 38.5% but we estimate closer to 48%, creating value
Pros
- + Current away price (2.6) is comfortably above our min required odds (2.083)
- + Decision grounded on parity in supplied performance data—no clear edge for favorite
Cons
- - Research supplied is sparse and shows nearly identical records, increasing model uncertainty
- - Tournament/context-specific factors (matchup details, H2H, on-site conditions) are not present in the data
Details
The market prices Veronika Erjavec as a clear favorite at 1.521 (implied ~65.7%) while Alina Charaeva is available at 2.6 (implied ~38.5%). The available profiles show nearly identical career records, surfaces played and recent results, indicating there is no strong performance-based justification for a >25-point gap in win probability. Given symmetry in the provided data and no clear injury or form edge, we estimate the true win probability for Charaeva materially above the market-implied 38.5% (we estimate ~48%). At that true probability the away line (2.6) offers positive expected value: EV = 0.48*2.6 - 1 = +0.248. In contrast the favorite is over-priced relative to our estimate (EV negative at current 1.521). Therefore we recommend the away side as a value play at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Both player profiles show nearly identical records, surfaces and recent results in the supplied data
- • Market-implied probability for the away player (≈38.5%) appears too low given parity in profiles
- • No listed injuries or clear form advantage for the favorite in the provided research