Highlights

• • Erjavec's vast experience and higher career win rate versus Chang
• • Current odds imply ~75% chance; we estimate ~80% -> positive EV

Pros

• + Significant experience and match-history advantage
• + Market price (1.332) is above our minimum required odds (1.25) for a fair return

Cons

• - Erjavec's recent form includes losses which could indicate short-term vulnerability
• - Low-return, short-price bet increases sensitivity to upset variance

Details

We believe Veronika Erjavec is undervalued by the market. The book price of 1.332 implies a raw market win probability of about 75.2% (1/1.332). Based on the players' career profiles — Erjavec's deep experience (1066 matches, a ~52.5% career win rate across surfaces) versus Chang's limited sample (31 matches, ~32% win rate) — plus both having recent losses but a clear experience and match-volume advantage for Erjavec, we estimate Erjavec's true win probability at 80%. At that estimate EV = 0.80 * 1.332 - 1 = +0.0656 (≈ +6.6% ROI), so the current price offers positive expected value. There are downside factors (Erjavec's recent form includes losses and long career could imply fatigue), but the gap in experience and career performance versus Chang's short, losing track record supports a value bet on the home player at the quoted 1.332.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Erjavec (1066 matches vs 31)
• • Clear career-level win-rate gap (Erjavec ~52.5% vs Chang ~32%)
• • Market-implied probability (~75.2%) is below our 80% estimate
• • No reported injuries in the provided research but recent form shows losses for both