Veronika Erjavec vs Kyoka Okamura

Highlights

• • Market implies Erjavec ~85.5% to win
• • Our fair price for Erjavec is ~1.538 (65% chance)

Pros

• + Erjavec is the market favorite and likely the stronger player on paper
• + Short priced favourite reduces variance if one wanted to play conservatively (but offers no value)

Cons

• - Price 1.17 implies a win probability well above what the available form and records support
• - Both players have similar records and recent losses, so the market gap is not justified by provided data

Details

We compare the market price (Erjavec 1.17, implied 85.5%) to our estimated win probability. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similarly poor recent form, so we assign Veronika Erjavec a realistic win probability around 65%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.538, far longer than the offered 1.17, so betting the 1.17 favorite is negative EV. There are no clear injury or surface advantages in the provided research to justify elevating Erjavec's chance to the market's implied level, so we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.17) is ~85.5%, which is much higher than our estimate
• • Both players show nearly identical career records and weak recent form
• • No injury, surface or H2H evidence in the research to justify the heavy favorite price