Veronika Erjavec vs Chloe Paquet

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (66.7%) is slightly below our estimate (70%)
• • Edge is modest (≈+0.05 EV) and depends on no undisclosed injury/condition

Pros

• + Erjavec's larger career sample and superior win-rate support a true-probability above market
• + Both players' hard-court experience reduces surface uncertainty in favor of the more consistent player

Cons

• - Edge is small; mis-estimation of form or injury would erase value
• - Research lacks head-to-head details and up-to-the-minute fitness information

Details

The market prices Veronika Erjavec at 1.50 (implied 66.7%). Comparing the players using only the provided profiles, Erjavec shows a materially larger sample size and a higher career win rate (559-507 ≈ 52.4%) versus Chloe Paquet's 10-21 (≈ 32.3%). Both players have recent losses on hard courts, but Erjavec's experience across all surfaces and substantially larger match history reduces variance and suggests she should be favored by more than the market-implied 66.7% in this matchup. Given Paquet's limited match sample and lower win rate on the provided data, we estimate Erjavec's true win probability at 70.0%, which produces positive expected value at the current decimal price of 1.50. The edge is modest (≈+5% ROI) and dependent on the assumption that there are no unreported injuries or conditions that materially alter form.

Key factors

• • Erjavec has a much larger career sample and higher overall win-rate than Paquet
• • Both players have experience on hard courts, but Erjavec's multi-surface background lowers match-up risk
• • Paquet's small sample size and low win percentage increase upset variance but suggest underdog status