Highlights

• • Away implied probability 27.5%; our estimate 30% -> positive EV
• • Estimated ROI ~9.2% at current away price (3.64)

Pros

• + Reyngold's career win rate supports a baseline chance near the required threshold for value
• + Market heavily favors Erjavec, leaving room for small edges on the underdog price

Cons

• - Small sample size and mixed recent form for Reyngold increase outcome variance
• - Erjavec's greater experience and higher career win rate make an upset less likely despite the value

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Home 1.29 -> ~77.5%, Away 3.64 -> ~27.5%) to our estimated true chances. Reyngold's career win rate (10-21, ~32%) provides a baseline that is close to the market-implied chance; given her match experience on hard and clay (both surfaces listed for her) and Erjavec's broader but older career sample (559-507, ~52.6%), we judge Reyngold's chance here to be about 30%. That 30% true probability exceeds the away implied probability (~27.5%), producing positive expected value at the current away price (3.64). We also account for uncertainty from small sample sizes and recent mixed form, so the edge is modest but present: EV = 0.30 * 3.64 - 1 = 0.092 (9.2% ROI per unit staked).

Key factors

• • Reyngold's career win rate (~32%) is near the implied away probability, supporting a slightly higher true chance than the market pricing
• • Erjavec's much larger career sample and higher overall win rate indicate she is the stronger player, but the market already prices her heavily as favorite (1.29)
• • Surface overlap (both players have results on hard and clay) and small-sample noise for Reyngold create uncertainty but do not remove the small edge at 3.64