Highlights

• • Gabriel's profile shows 3 matches (1-2) on clay — sample size is extremely small
• • Current odds imply Gabriel ~63.7% and Vicente ~43.8%, but our conservative estimate for Vicente is 42% (no value)

Pros

• + We err on the side of caution given the sparse data
• + Clear quantitative comparison between implied market probabilities and our conservative estimates

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of opponent info and very limited match history
• - If additional, positive information on either player exists outside the provided research, our conclusion may change

Details

We compared the market prices (Vicente Freda 2.28, Gabriel Schenekenberg 1.57) to our estimated win probability based on the available player data. The only research available is Gabriel Schenekenberg's brief profile: three career matches (1-2) on clay through June 2025, so the sample is extremely small and form information is sparse. The market heavily favors Schenekenberg (implied ~63.7%), but given the limited match history and lack of any data on Vicente Freda, we conservatively estimate Vicente's true win probability at 42%. At the offered home price 2.28 that produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.42 * 2.28 - 1 = -0.042), so there is no value on the home side. For Gabriel, even with a generous true probability estimate of 58% he is priced at 1.57 (implied 63.7%), which also yields negative EV. Because neither side shows positive EV versus our estimated probabilities and the underlying data set is tiny, we recommend no play.

Key factors

• • Extremely limited data: Gabriel has only 3 recorded matches (1-2) on clay — sample too small to be confident
• • Market favoritism: odds imply Gabriel ~63.7% win chance; our conservative estimate puts the home chance lower than market-implied
• • No information available on Vicente Freda in the provided research, increasing uncertainty and model risk