Vicky Van De Peer vs Carolin Raschdorf

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for the home player (32%) seems too low relative to available data
• • Required fair odds are 2.00; current offer of 3.10 generates positive EV

Pros

• + Large margin between fair odds (2.00) and market odds (3.10) gives significant theoretical ROI
• + Decision rests on neutral, symmetric data rather than speculative differentials

Cons

• - Research is limited — no H2H, venue specifics, or late-breaking form/injury info to refine the probability
• - If external factors (not in research) favor the away player, our 50% estimate could be optimistic

Details

The market prices Carolin Raschdorf as a heavy favorite (1.33, implied ~75%) while Vicky Van De Peer is priced at 3.10 (implied ~32%). The provided profiles show near-identical records (both 10-21), similar recent form and surfaces played, with no injury notes or clear edges for Raschdorf. Given the lack of differentiating information in the research, a fair/neutral estimate is ~50% for each player. At that true probability, the home price of 3.10 offers substantial value versus its implied probability (0.323). Calculation: estimated p = 0.50; min fair decimal odds = 1 / 0.50 = 2.00; current home odds = 3.10 which exceeds the required 2.00, producing positive EV.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results in the provided data
• • No injuries, surface advantage, or head-to-head information present to justify a large discrepancy in win probability
• • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~75%) creating a clear overround and potential mispricing