Highlights

• • Market prices imply 56.5% for Vicky; we estimate 58.5%
• • Multi-surface experience and recent strong serve metrics support a slight edge

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the current price
• + Experienced player with results across multiple surfaces

Cons

• - Edge is small — EV only ~3.5%, sensitive to estimation error
• - No opponent/H2H or explicit surface for this match in provided research, increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Vicky Van De Peer (1.769 -> 56.5% implied) to our estimated true win probability of 58.5%. The research shows a long career (559-507, 52.4% career win rate) and multi-surface experience, plus isolated recent match stats that indicate strong serve performance in at least one recent match. Given limited information on Sofia Kryvoruchko and no H2H or surface-specific disadvantage for Vicky in the research provided, we assign a modest edge to Vicky. That edge (≈2 percentage points) against the current price yields a small but positive expected value. We use the current home decimal price (1.769) to calculate EV.

Key factors

• • Career win rate 559-507 (≈52.4%) indicating above-average experience
• • Proven play across all surfaces (grass, carpet, clay, hard) increases matchup flexibility
• • Recent match data shows high 1st-serve won percentage in at least one recent outing
• • Market-implied probability (56.5%) is slightly below our estimated probability (58.5%)
• • Lack of available opponent/H2H/surface-specific detail increases model uncertainty