Highlights

• • Victor marginally better on paper (2-7 vs 0-7) but sample sizes are tiny
• • Implied market probability (~82%) exceeds our estimated true probability (68%)

Pros

• + Victor has the only recorded wins between the two players
• + Both have experience on clay and hard, reducing surface-based uncertainty

Cons

• - Overall form for both players is poor and sample sizes are very small
• - Market heavily favors Victor, leaving no value at the posted odds

Details

We estimate Victor Braga is the stronger player here based on a marginally better record (2-7 vs 0-7) and slightly more consistent recent stats, but both players have very limited and poor results on tour. The market price (Victor 1.22) implies ~82% win probability, which is materially higher than our assessed true win probability. Given the small sample sizes, mixed surfaces and absence of any clear edge (injuries, dominant H2H, or form swing), we estimate Victor's true win probability at 68%. At that probability the required fair odds are ~1.471, well above the offered 1.22, producing a negative expected value. Therefore there is no value at current prices and we recommend passing.

Key factors

• • Both players have very limited pro records and poor recent results (Victor 2-7, Breno 0-7)
• • Victor has a slight edge in results/consistency but not enough to justify 1.22 market pricing
• • No clear surface, injury, or head-to-head advantage to materially shift win probability