Highlights

• • Home implied probability (81%) is much higher than what Victor Hugo's record supports
• • At our 45% estimate for the away, current odds 3.85 yield ~73% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Significant pricing discrepancy between market and documented player form
• + High upside if our conservative probability estimate for the underdog is correct

Cons

• - We lack Felipe Garla data and H2H information in the Research, increasing uncertainty
• - Small sample size for Victor Hugo's career and odd/incomplete recent-match stats reduce confidence

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.23 => implied home win probability ~81.3%) to the limited available player data. The Research shows Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto has a poor career win-loss record (5-14) and minimal recent success (only one win visible in the recent matches list), which does not justify an 81% implied chance. Given that imbalance and the absence of any positive data for the favorite, we estimate the true win probability for the away player (Felipe Garla) at 45% and for the home player at 55%. At the quoted away price of 3.85, that 45% belief produces positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 3.85 - 1 = 0.7325). Therefore we recommend backing the away player because the market appears to overprice Victor Hugo relative to his documented form and win rate. We note considerable uncertainty because Felipe Garla's profile and H2H data are not in the Research, so our probability is conservative relative to the clear discrepancy between market-implied and observed form.

Key factors

• • Victor Hugo career record is weak (5-14) and recent form shows very few wins
• • Market heavily favors home at 1.23 (implied ~81%), creating a potential overlay on the underdog
• • No opponent (Felipe Garla) data in Research increases uncertainty and suggests the bookmaker may be over-adjusting