Highlights

• • Victor's 5-14 career record and recent form are red flags for the home side
• • Current away price (1.82) yields an estimated EV of +0.341 using our probability model

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between our estimated probability and market-implied probability
• + Large positive expected value at widely available current odds (1.82)

Cons

• - Limited direct data on Valentino Grippo in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - Small sample size and potential surface/venue nuances that are not fully documented could affect the outcome

Details

We estimate Valentino Grippo is the stronger pick based on Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto's weak career/results sample (5-14 overall) and very poor recent form (only 1 win in his last 10 matches shown). Those factors point to a materially lower true win probability for Pagotto than the market-implied number for the home player. The market currently prices the away at 1.82 (implied ~54.9%); we assess Valentino's true win probability at ~73.7%, which creates value versus the market because 0.737*1.82 - 1 = +0.341 EV. We therefore recommend the away side only because expected_value > 0 at the quoted 1.82 price. We note uncertainty from limited direct matchup/H2H and surface specifics, but the differential between Pagotto's documented form and the market price supports a positive-expected-value wager on Valentino.

Key factors

• • Pagotto's poor overall record (5-14) implies a low baseline win rate
• • Very weak recent form (only 1 win in last 10 matches) reduces his short-term chances
• • Market price for away (1.82) implies a much lower probability than our estimate, creating value