Highlights

• • Braga has a 2-7 record and recent losses in the supplied data.
• • Away odds 2.63 imply ~38% but we estimate ~70%, creating substantial value.

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market-implied probability and our form-based estimate.
• + Current away odds (2.63) produce a strong positive EV at our probability estimate.

Cons

• - Very limited dataset and no direct information on the away player in the provided research.
• - High uncertainty from small sample sizes and unknown late changes (injury/withdrawal) not covered in the research.

Details

We find clear value on the away player (Daniel Vecchio Couldrey Rebelo) because the market heavily favors the home player at 1.44 despite Victor Braga's demonstrably poor form and limited success. Braga's career record in the supplied data is 2-7 with recent consecutive losses; there is no evidence in the research of strong form or a surface advantage to justify a 69% implied win probability for Braga. Given the limited sample size but consistent negative results, we conservatively estimate the away player’s true win probability at 70%, which implies that the current decimal price of 2.63 for the away side is materially undervalued by the market. Using odds 2.63, the expected value is positive (EV = 0.70 * 2.63 - 1 = 0.841), so we recommend backing the away side at current prices. We note elevated uncertainty due to small sample sizes and lack of direct head-to-head or opponent-specific scouting, so this is a higher-risk value opportunity rather than a lock.

Key factors

• • Victor Braga's recorded form in the supplied data is poor (2-7 career, recent consecutive losses).
• • Market implies a strong home favorite (1.44) that is inconsistent with Braga's recent results.
• • No evidence in the research of a surface or injury advantage that would justify the market price.