Highlights

• • Market overprices Victoria Allen despite weak documented record
• • Alize Lim's experience and career win rate drive the favorable value

Pros

• + Substantial positive EV at current quoted odds (≈47% ROI by our estimate)
• + Bet supported by large discrepancy between implied market odds and our probability estimate

Cons

• - Recent form for both players in challengers shows losses — increases variance
• - Limited match-sample and context for Allen may hide form/contextual factors not in the provided research

Details

The market currently prices Victoria Allen at 1.407 (implied ~71%) and Alize Lim at 2.68 (implied ~37%). Our read of the available player data suggests the market has overstated the home's chances. Allen's documented career record in the research is 10-22 (≈31% win rate) across 32 matches, while Lim's career is 559-507 (≈53% win rate) across a much larger sample. Both players show recent losses at challenger-level events, but Lim's greater experience, higher lifetime win rate and demonstrated competence on multiple surfaces reduce the likelihood she is a 37% chance here. We estimate Lim's true win probability at 55%, which makes the current 2.68 price materially mispriced. Using p=0.55 and the quoted decimal odds 2.68 gives EV = 0.55*2.68 - 1 = 0.474 (47.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Given that positive expected value and the pricing gap versus our probability estimate, we recommend taking Alize Lim at the quoted market price. We note uncertainty from small-sample data for Allen, lack of H2H information, and both players' recent form; these raise variance, so we assign a medium risk level.

Key factors

• • Alize Lim's much larger career sample and higher overall win rate (~53%)
• • Victoria Allen's short sample and 10-22 record (≈31% career win rate)
• • Large disparity between market implied probability and our estimated true probability (37% vs 55%)