Highlights

• • Market implies 62.5% for Victoria; our estimate is 60%
• • Cadence's career win rate (≈32%) makes the 2.28 price unlikely to be +EV

Pros

• + Victoria's greater experience and superior career record argue she is the likely favorite
• + Both have hard-court experience listed, reducing unknowns about surface suitability

Cons

• - Market price for Victoria already reflects her edge, leaving no positive EV at 1.60
• - Cadence's small match sample creates high variance; insufficient evidence to justify underdog value

Details

We compared the market prices (Victoria 1.60 implied 62.5%) to our assessment based on the provided player profiles. Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva has far greater career volume and a higher career win rate (559-507, ~52.4%) versus Cadence Brace (10-21, ~32.3%), and both have matches on hard courts in their recent logs. However, the market already prices Victoria at ~62.5% and our conservative, research-backed estimate for her true win probability is 60%. At the current home price (1.60) that estimated probability does not produce positive expected value (EV = 0.60*1.60 - 1 = -0.04). The away price (2.28) would require Cadence to have >43.9% win probability to be +EV, which is well above her documented career win rate and our assessment. Given the unclear recent form entries and limited match sample for Cadence, we cannot justify a higher probability for the underdog. Therefore no side shows value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Victoria has much larger sample size and better career win rate (559-507, ~52.4%) than Cadence (10-21, ~32.3%)
• • Both players have recent matches on hard courts in the provided logs; no clear surface edge for the underdog
• • Market-implied probability for Victoria (62.5%) exceeds our conservative true probability estimate (60%), removing value
• • Cadence's small career sample (31 matches) and poor win rate make a >43.9% true probability (required to beat 2.28) unlikely
• • Recent form entries show losses for both players and are insufficiently informative to swing probability in Cadence's favor