Highlights

• • Estimated fair odds for Jimenez: 3.333; market offers 3.50
• • Small positive EV (~5% ROI) at our conservative 30% probability

Pros

• + Concrete positive EV at available price (3.50) based on our conservative probability
• + Research shows similar career/recent profiles, supporting a closer match-up than the market implies

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ≈ 5%), meaning variance can easily erase short-term profit
• - Research is limited/inconsistent, increasing model risk and uncertainty in the true probability

Details

We find a small value backing Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva at 3.50. The market heavily favors Veronika Kudermetova at 1.30 (implied ~77%), but the provided research shows near-identical career-level records and mixed recent form for both players, which argues for a narrower gap than the market implies. Conservatively we estimate Jimenez's true win probability at 30%; at that probability the fair price is 3.333 and the available 3.50 offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.30 * 3.50 - 1 = +0.05 (5% ROI per unit). Given the limited and inconsistent data, we remain cautious and size this as a small, value-seeking play rather than a strong conviction bet.

Key factors

• • Book market prices Kudermetova at 1.30 (implied ~77%), creating a large underdog payout for Jimenez at 3.50
• • Provided career and recent-form data in research are very similar for both players, implying a closer match-up than the market suggests
• • Limited, inconsistent recent results increase model uncertainty but justify a conservative 30% estimate for Jimenez rather than the market's implied ~29%