Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Veronika Kudermetova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend the home underdog (Victoria) at 3.85 as a value bet based on parity in the provided records; estimated true win probability ~30% yields ~15.5% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Home priced 3.85 vs implied market win probability ~26.0%
- • We estimate Victoria’s true chance at ~30%, creating positive EV
Pros
- + Clear numerical value versus the market price at the quoted odds
- + No research-supplied injury or surface disadvantage to justify the large favorite
Cons
- - Limited detail in the provided sources (small sample and no H2H or ranking context)
- - Market may be correctly pricing intangibles not present in the supplied data
Details
We find value backing Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva at 3.85. The available research shows both players with essentially identical recent records and surfaces played, suggesting the market price (heavy favoritism to Kudermetova) overstates the away player’s win probability. There are no injury flags or clear surface advantages in the provided data to justify such a short price on the away side. Using a conservative estimated true probability for the home player of 30% yields a positive expected value versus the current decimal price, so we recommend the home underdog at current publicly quoted odds.
Key factors
- • Both players show very similar season records and recent form in the provided data (no clear superiority).
- • Surfaces listed (clay, hard) are shared between players — no explicit surface edge in the research.
- • Market has heavy favoritism to the away player despite parity in the available stats, creating value on the home underdog.