Highlights

• • Away implied win probability: ~86.6% (decimal 1.155) — likely overstated
• • Home at 5.12 implies only ~19.5% win chance; we estimate ~32%, producing positive EV

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current public odds (EV ~0.64 per unit)
• + Players' career records are similar, supporting a much closer true match probability than market implies

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific form, partnership history, and head-to-head data — increases uncertainty
• - Market may be factoring information not present in the provided material (injury, pairing changes, local conditions)

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our conservative estimate of the true win chance. The market prices the Away pair at decimal 1.155 (implied ~86.6%) and the Home pair at 5.12 (implied ~19.5%). The research shows all four players with very similar limited records (roughly 10-21 across 31 matches) and the same surfaces played, indicating parity and high variance in outcomes. Given the parity and limited sample / lack of doubles-specific data, we assign the Home pair a true win probability materially higher than the implied 19.5%—we estimate ~32%. At that probability the Home side requires only ~3.125 in decimal odds to break even, so the offered 5.12 contains clear value. We also note the market’s heavy favoritism toward the Away side appears to reflect an overreaction or informational imbalance rather than a large quality gap supported by the provided player records.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Away (~86.6%) far exceeds what player records justify
• • All four players show similar limited records (10-21), implying match parity and higher upset chance
• • Lack of doubles-specific stats and small sample size increases outcome variance, favoring long odds