Victoria Milovanova vs Alicia Dudeney

Highlights

• • Market implies ~28.3% for Milovanova; we estimate ~36%.
• • Positive EV at current price: roughly +27.1% ROI per unit stake using our probability.

Pros

• + Clear mispricing versus the information provided (similar records/form).
• + High-variance ITF environment supports higher upset probability.

Cons

• - Research lacks H2H, rankings, or confirmed injury/fitness details—uncertainty remains.
• - If hidden factors (seeding, recent practice/performance not in sources) favor the favorite, value could evaporate.

Details

We find value on Victoria Milovanova at 3.53. The provided profiles show nearly identical career records and recent form for both players (10-21, similar surfaces and results), so the market-implied probability for Alicia Dudeney (1.26 -> ~79.4%) appears overstated given the available data. In the ITF environment outcomes are high-variance and parity between these two profiles suggests a materially higher true chance for Milovanova than the implied 28.3%. Conservatively estimating Milovanova's win probability at 36% produces positive expected value at the current decimal price (EV = 0.36*3.53 - 1 = +0.271). We also note no injury or head-to-head information is provided, which raises uncertainty but does not offset the clear mispricing implied by identical public performance metrics.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the supplied data (10-21).
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.26) despite no supporting differentiation in the provided profiles.
• • ITF matches have high variance; parity in profiles increases probability of an upset relative to market odds.
• • No injuries, H2H, or other differentiating data provided—adds uncertainty but strengthens case for market mispricing.