Highlights

• • Book odds imply Steiner is almost certain (92.8%), which conflicts with her ~52% career win rate and recent losses
• • At a 15% true win chance for Veleva, the current 7.23 price yields ~8.45% ROI

Pros

• + Clear positive EV versus the market price when using conservative probability assumptions
• + Large payoff on a relatively modest true-probability edge

Cons

• - Limited match-specific data (no direct H2H or up-to-the-minute injury updates) increases uncertainty
• - High variance: upsets in single-match tennis are infrequent but decisive — bankroll swings possible

Details

We compare the book implied probabilities to our estimate based on the available player data. The market makes Valentina Steiner an overwhelming favorite at decimal 1.076 (implied ~92.8%), which is inconsistent with the research: Steiner's long career win-loss record (~559-507, ~52% wins) and the recent documented losses suggest she is not a 92% probability pick in an ITF quarterfinal. With limited head-to-head or injury data provided, we conservatively assign Victoria Veleva a 15% true win probability — reflecting that Steiner is clearly the favorite but far below the market-implied dominance. At that probability the fair decimal price for Veleva is ~6.667; the current price of 7.23 exceeds that threshold, producing positive expected value. Betting Steiner at 1.076 offers negative EV because our estimated win probability for Steiner (~85%) is materially below the market-implied ~92.8%. Therefore we recommend a value play on the home underdog (Victoria Veleva) at the quoted 7.23.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Steiner (~92.8%) appears inconsistent with her career win rate (~52%) and recent documented losses
• • Recent form in the research shows Steiner lost recent documented matches, lowering confidence in near-certain favoritism
• • Current underdog price for Veleva (7.23) exceeds our fair-price threshold (~6.667) for a 15% win probability, creating value