Highlights

• • Market implies only ~30.8% for the away at 3.25, while we estimate ~46%
• • Both players' documented profiles are nearly identical, so the large favourite price appears overstated

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between implied and estimated probabilities yields significant EV
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV at available prices

Cons

• - Small sample size and poor form for both players increase outcome variance
• - No clear additional information (injury, H2H, surface advantage) in provided research to materially boost confidence

Details

We find value backing Ines Leon at the current 3.25 price. Both players show nearly identical records in the provided research (each 10-22 across clay and hard, recent results showing losses), so there is no clear on-paper performance advantage that justifies Victoria Allen being priced as a heavy 1.30 favourite (implied ~76.9%). Using a conservative, evidence-driven estimated true probability of 46% for Leon (54% for Allen), the market materially undervalues the away player: implied probability at 3.25 is ~30.8% while our estimate is 46%. Calculated EV = 0.46 * 3.25 - 1 = 0.495 (49.5% ROI per unit), which represents substantial positive expected value even after allowing for uncertainty. We adopt a conservative probability given both players' poor recent form and limited differentiating information, but the current market price still offers clear value for the underdog.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical documented records (10-22) and play similar surfaces — little evidence of a strong edge for the favourite
• • Bookmaker pricing heavily favours the home player (1.30 implied ~76.9%), creating a large discrepancy versus our conservative true probability estimate
• • Recent results show both players struggling with losses; limited form differentiation increases variance but does not justify the favourite’s steep price