Highlights

• • Market implies ~86.2% for Osuigwe; our estimate ~52%.
• • Huge gap between implied and estimated probability -> no value on the favorite.

Pros

• + We avoid betting into an obvious negative-expectation price.
• + Assessment based strictly on supplied player records and recent results.

Cons

• - Analysis is constrained by limited information; unseen factors could justify the market price.
• - If external contextual data (injury, withdrawal, ranking differences) exist but were not provided, our estimate may be off.

Details

Market odds put Whitney Osuigwe at 1.16 (implied ~86.2% win probability). Our review of the provided player profiles shows nearly identical records (both 10-21), similar recent results (recent losses), and both have experience on clay and hard courts — nothing in the supplied data justifies an 86% implied probability. Given that parity in form and no injury or head-to-head information in the research, we estimate Osuigwe's true win probability near 52%. At that forecast the current price of 1.16 offers a large negative expectation, so there is no value on the favorite and we do not recommend wagering.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the supplied data (10-21).
• • Both have results on clay and hard surfaces in the research — no clear surface edge is evident.
• • Market-implied probability (86% for the favorite) is far above what the supplied match data supports.