Victoria Milovanova vs Kayla Lorrimer
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: the market heavily favors Milovanova (1.03) but her career record and recent losses do not support a ~97% win probability; required fair odds would be ~2.857.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for favorite is implausibly high given available form data
- • Even a generous true-probability estimate (35%) produces a large negative EV at 1.03
Pros
- + We avoid betting into a market that appears severely mispriced versus documented form
- + Clear numeric thresholds provided (min required odds) if better prices become available
Cons
- - Opponent information is missing from the Research, which limits precision of the probability estimate
- - If there are unreported factors strongly favoring Milovanova, our conservative estimate could understate her true chance
Details
We estimate Victoria Milovanova's true win probability materially below the market-implied probability. The market price of 1.03 implies ~97.1% win probability, but Milovanova's recorded career line is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) and her recent results show losses at recent Challenger events on hard courts; there is no corroborating data in the Research that would justify moving her true chance to the high-90s. Using a conservative, evidence-based estimated true probability of 35% (0.35) — already generous relative to her 10/31 career record to allow for opponent/seed unknowns and possible matchup advantages — the required fair decimal price would be 1 / 0.35 = 2.857. At the current quoted home price (1.03) the expected return would be EV = 0.35 * 1.03 - 1 = -0.6395 (≈ -0.64), a large negative expectation. The away price (12.0) would require an implied upset probability >8.33% to be profitable; given the available Research we do not have evidence to justify an upset probability above that threshold. Therefore no side represents value at current prices.
Key factors
- • Career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) suggests far lower baseline win probability than market implies
- • Recent results show losses at Rennes and Cassis Challengers on hard courts — form is weak
- • Market prices (1.03/12.0) are extreme; available Research does not justify a ~97% probability for Milovanova or >8.3% for the underdog