Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Rodriguez (1.735) is ~57.6% vs our estimate 53.0%
• • Required decimal odds to be profitable on Rodriguez are ~1.887, above current price

Pros

• + Home favorite status may reflect marginal practical edges not in the supplied data
• + Odds are competitive if you believe Rodriguez has a larger edge than we estimate

Cons

• - Provided research shows near-identical profiles and results for both players
• - Current favorite price is too short relative to our conservative win-probability estimate

Details

We used only the supplied profiles and current market prices. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form as presented, so there is no clear performance edge. The market makes Victoria Rodriguez the favorite at 1.735 (market-implied probability ~57.6%), but given the symmetry in available data we estimate her true win probability at 53.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.887, which is longer than the available 1.735, producing negative expected value. The away price (2.10) implies ~47.6% and would require us to believe Haley is notably superior to create value; the provided research does not support that. Therefore no side offers positive EV at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical records and recent match listings in the provided research
• • Market favors the home player but the research does not justify a >57% true probability
• • No additional surface, injury, or H2H advantage is present in the supplied data