Highlights

• • Victoria in poor form based on provided match history
• • Current favorite price (1.52) does not offer value against our estimated probability

Pros

• + Market favors the player who appears stronger based on available Victoria data
• + Lack of contradictory information reduces the chance of an overlooked sharp edge

Cons

• - We have no direct data on Sarah Rakotomanga from the research, so uncertainty remains
• - Victoria's poor recent form makes underdog value unlikely at available prices

Details

We compared the market prices (Victoria 2.55 / Sarah 1.52) to our estimate of the true win probability based on the available player data. Victoria Rodriguez's recent form is poor (10-21 career record in the provided span, multiple recent losses), which supports the market view that she is the underdog. We lack any data on Sarah Rakotomanga in the research, which increases uncertainty but the market price (1.52, implied ~65.8%) implies a strong advantage for Sarah. Given Victoria's weak form and the absence of positive signals that would materially increase her win chance, our estimated true probability for Sarah (0.62) is below the market-implied probability (≈0.658), producing a negative expected value at the available 1.52 price. Therefore we do not recommend taking a side at current prices because there is no positive EV.

Key factors

• • Victoria Rodriguez recent form is poor (10-21 in provided span, multiple recent losses)
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.52 implies ~65.8%); our model estimates slightly lower chance for the favorite
• • No information provided on Sarah Rakotomanga increases uncertainty and prevents identifying overlooked value