Viktor Frydrych vs Timofei Derepasko
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value is present at current prices: the favorite (Derepasko) is priced too short relative to our estimated probability and the home price also lacks upside.
Highlights
- • Market favorite (1.46) implies ~68.5% win chance
- • Our model estimates Derepasko ~62% — market overstates his chances
Pros
- + Derepasko shows better raw record and more consistent recent results
- + Both players have experience on hard courts, reducing surface uncertainty
Cons
- - Market has already moved in favor of Derepasko, removing value
- - Frydrych’s occasional strong performances make an upset plausible; variance is high
Details
We estimate Timofei Derepasko is the stronger favorite based on a better win-loss record on similar surfaces (9-7 vs 6-11) and more consistent recent form. The market price (Away 1.46) implies ~68.5% win probability, but our estimated true probability for Derepasko is ~62% — lower than the market-implied figure, so the favorite is over-priced by the book and offers negative EV. Converting our view into numbers: our estimated P(Derepasko) = 0.62 so min fair decimal odds = 1.613; at the available 1.46 the EV = 0.62*1.46 - 1 = -0.095 (negative). For Viktor Frydrych, implied market odds 2.50 give implied P=0.40; our estimated P(home) ~0.38 yields EV = 0.38*2.5 - 1 = -0.05 (also negative). Because neither side offers positive expected value at current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Derepasko has the superior recent win-loss record (9-7 vs 6-11) on comparable surfaces
- • Both players have ATP-level experience only on Clay/Hard; form favors Derepasko
- • Market-implied probability for Derepasko (68.5%) exceeds our true estimate (62%), removing value