Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Frydrych (58.7%) exceeds our 54% estimate
• • Required fair odds for value are ~1.852; current 1.704 is too short

Pros

• + Frydrych has slightly more recorded match experience and a recent win in the provided data
• + Price shows Frydrych as favorite, reflecting at least some edge perception

Cons

• - Both players have very limited and poor records, increasing outcome variance
• - No H2H, surface edge, or injury info to confidently justify a higher true probability

Details

We estimate Viktor Frydrych is a slight favorite based on marginally better match experience and a recent win, but the public price (1.704 -> implied 58.7%) overstates his edge versus Ivan Gretskiy given both players' very limited, poor records (Frydrych 4-13, Gretskiy 2-8) and no clear surface or injury advantage in the provided research. Using a conservative true-win probability of 54.0% for Frydrych, the required fair odds would be ~1.852, whereas the market is offering 1.704, producing a negative expected value. The sample sizes are small, form is volatile, and there is no H2H or injury information to justify taking the book's implied probability. Therefore we decline to recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have poor recent records with small sample sizes (Frydrych 4-13, Gretskiy 2-8)
• • Book price implies Frydrych win prob ~58.7% which we view as overstated versus our 54% estimate
• • No decisive surface, injury, or H2H information in the research to justify better than small edge