Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Steiner: ~89.3%; our estimate: 85%
• • Breakeven decimal for Steiner at our estimate: ~1.176 (market is shorter at 1.12)

Pros

• + Steiner has long-term experience and a winning career record, justifying favoritism
• + If Steiner shows clear form deterioration or injury, market could move and create value

Cons

• - Current price for Steiner (1.12) offers negative EV against our probability estimate
• - Lack of data on Veleva prevents a reliable argument for the underdog despite the attractive 5.6 price

Details

We view the market pricing (Valentina Steiner at 1.12, implied ~89.3% win chance) as too aggressive relative to what the available data supports. Steiner's long career and overall positive record (559-507) make her the clear favorite, but recent results in the supplied profile show recent losses (including late-August/early-September defeats), and there is no information in the research about Viktoria Veleva’s level, form, or head-to-head. Based on Steiner’s career profile and the limited recent form data, we estimate Steiner's true win probability around 85% (0.85), which implies a fair decimal price of ~1.176. At the current quoted price of 1.12 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.85 * 1.12 - 1 = -0.048), so there is no value on Steiner. Conversely, backing the home underdog at 5.6 would require a true win probability of at least ~17.86% to be profitable; given the lack of data on Veleva and Steiner's experience, we do not have a defensible estimate above that threshold. Therefore we recommend taking no bet here.

Key factors

• • Steiner’s extensive career volume and slight career edge (559-507) supports favoritism but not extreme pricing
• • Recent results in the supplied profile show recent losses, lowering confidence that market is 89%+ accurate
• • No usable information on Viktoria Veleva or H2H in the provided research, increasing uncertainty on an underdog bet