Viktorie Zidelova vs Nela Linhartova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: available favorite price (1.14) is too short versus our conservative true-win estimate (~82%), producing a negative EV.
Highlights
- • Market makes Linhartova ~82% likely after removing overround
- • Current odds would need to be >= 1.22 to offer value given our estimate
Pros
- + Clear market consensus on a strong favorite simplifies comparative analysis
- + Conservative probability avoids overreach given missing match-specific information
Cons
- - Heavy favorite pricing offers little opportunity for positive EV without additional favorable info
- - Lack of surface/form/injury/H2H data increases uncertainty around any higher probability estimate
Details
The market makes Nela Linhartova a heavy favorite (decimal 1.14). Implied probabilities from the raw prices are: Away 1/1.14 = 87.72%, Home 1/5.2 = 19.23% (sum = 106.95% overround). Normalizing the market to remove the overround gives an implied fair probability for the away player of ~82.0%. With no additional match-specific information (surface, form, injuries, H2H) and taking a conservative stance, we estimate the true win probability for Linhartova at 82.0%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal odds would be ~1.220. The available odds (1.14) are shorter than that threshold, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.82 * 1.14 - 1 = -0.0652). Therefore there is no value at the current price and we do not recommend betting either side.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (normalized) ~82% for the away favorite
- • No additional match data (surface, injuries, recent form, H2H) to justify diverging from market
- • Current public price 1.14 is shorter than our conservative fair threshold (1.22)