Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Bailly: ~88.7%
• • Our estimated probability for Bailly: 86.0% → current odds are slightly overconfident

Pros

• + Bailly's larger match record and Challenger-level activity strongly favor him
• + Both players have clay experience, reducing surface-driven variance

Cons

• - The book's price for Bailly is too short to offer value at current estimate
• - Limited match-level context (no H2H, no confirmed injuries) increases uncertainty in precise probability

Details

We compare the quoted prices (Home 5.39, Away 1.127) to our assessment of true probabilities. Gilles Arnaud Bailly is the clear class and sample-size favorite (47-21 across 68 matches, Challenger-level recent activity) versus Vincent Marysko (11-9 across 20 matches). That justifies a high win probability for Bailly, but the market-implied probability at 1.127 is ~88.7%. Based on the available profiles and form data, we estimate Bailly's true win probability at ~86.0%, lower than the implied 88.7%, which produces a slightly negative expected value at current odds. Given limited granular match details (no explicit injury/withdrawal info, no direct H2H, and both have clay experience), we cannot justify wagering on the heavy favorite at 1.127 because it does not offer positive EV. Therefore we recommend no bet unless the market offers at least ~1.163 or worse for Bailly (i.e., higher decimal odds).

Key factors

• • Bailly has a much larger match sample and superior win-loss record, implying clear favorite status
• • Marysko has limited pro match volume and fewer recent high-level results, reducing upset likelihood
• • Market price for Bailly (1.127) implies ~88.7% — we estimate slightly lower (~86%), producing negative EV