Highlights

• • Bookmaker implied probability for Marysko is ~95%
• • Our estimated true probability is ~75%, producing a negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Marysko has pro-level wins and is a reasonable favorite based on profile
• + Market consensus strongly favors Marysko (heavy favorite) which aligns with limited data

Cons

• - The price (1.05) overstates certainty and yields negative expected value versus our probability
• - No information on opponent or clean recent dominance to justify a near-certain price

Details

The market price (home 1.05 → implied 95.2%) overstates the likelihood of a Vincent Marysko win relative to the available evidence. Marysko's profile shows a modest professional record (11-9) with mixed recent results and play across multiple surfaces; there is no information about Kaspar Mathes or a head-to-head to justify a near-certain probability. Using a conservative, evidence-based true win probability of 75% for Marysko (reflecting favorite status but accounting for limited sample size and missing opponent data) the implied market probability is far too high and produces a negative expected return. Therefore we do not recommend betting on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~95% for Marysko (1.05) which is not supported by his modest 11-9 career record
• • Research lacks any data on Kaspar Mathes or H2H, increasing uncertainty about a near-certain outcome
• • Recent form appears mixed and surface history is varied, reducing confidence in an extremely short price