Highlights

• • Quoted away price 16.0 implies ~6.25% win chance — likely far below true chance
• • Conservative model p=35% yields EV ≈ +4.6 per 1 unit stake

Pros

• + Large margin between implied (6.25%) and our estimated (35%) probability creates big theoretical value
• + Both players' similar records reduce likelihood of such an extreme favorite being correct

Cons

• - Limited available data (no H2H, no injury/lineup details) increases model uncertainty
• - Extreme market price could be due to a correct but undisclosed factor (withdrawal, walkover, admin error)

Details

The market price (Viola Turini 1.01 / Georgia Kalamaris 16.0) implies an almost-certain win for Turini (~99% implied) despite both players having nearly identical career records this season (Turini 10-22, Kalamaris 10-21) and similar surface experience. The data in Research shows no clear dominance by Turini, no recent head-to-head or injury advantage, and both have multiple recent losses on hard courts. Such an extreme line looks like a pricing error or a liquidity anomaly. Conservatively estimating Kalamaris's true chance at 35% (reflecting near parity but giving slight edge to the listed favorite due to home/listing), the fair decimal price would be ~2.857. At the quoted 16.0 there is substantial positive expected value (EV = 0.35*16 - 1 = 4.6 per unit). We therefore identify the away side (Georgia Kalamaris) as value at current prices, while flagging high model uncertainty due to limited data and no H2H/medical info.

Key factors

• • Both players have almost identical season records (Turini 10-22, Kalamaris 10-21)
• • Market implies an absurd 99% for the favorite despite no clear advantage in the provided data
• • No injury or H2H info in Research; small-sample volatility makes extreme market prices likely mispricing