Virgile Veneau vs Marwan Haida-Lamrani

Highlights

• • Book implied probability: 98.04% (very short)
• • Our conservative true win estimate: 93% → negative EV at current price

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the away player — likely the stronger player
• + Low variance scenario if one had additional confirming data (form, injuries)

Cons

• - Price requires >98% certainty to be profitable — unrealistic without solid data
• - No research data available to justify such a high implied probability

Details

We compare the market price (Away 1.02 => implied 98.04%) to a conservative estimated true probability for the heavy favorite. Given no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data, we make a conservative assumption that the favorite's true win probability is roughly 93%. At that estimate the bookmaker price requires ~98.04% certainty to be profitable, which is materially higher than our estimate. Therefore there is no positive expected value at the available odds and we do not recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Away at 1.02 is ~98.04%, an extreme consensus
• • No corroborating data available—use conservative assumption of ~93% true probability for heavy favorite
• • Required break-even probability (1/1.02) exceeds our estimate, producing negative EV