Highlights

• • Away price (3.20) slightly above our fair odds threshold (3.077)
• • Edge is modest — positive EV but limited margin and some uncertainty

Pros

• + Quantified positive EV at current widely-available price
• + Opponent has recent losses at high-level hard events which may compress true favorite value

Cons

• - Small edge (≈4% ROI) subject to variance and missing H2H/surface specifics
• - Kopriva's stronger overall record means turnover risk if our probability estimate is aggressive

Details

The market prices Kopriva as a ~75.2% favorite (1/1.33) which implies Dedura-Palomero has ~31.25% chance. Based on the available profiles we estimate Dedura-Palomero's true win probability at ~32.5%: his 31-30 career record and recent Challenger-level wins suggest he is better than a pure 31% dog here, while Kopriva's superior overall record (43-25) is moderated by recent losses at higher-level hard events. With the quoted away decimal odds of 3.20 (odds_used_for_ev = 3.2), our EV = 0.325 * 3.20 - 1 = +0.04 (4% ROI). That small edge comes from the market slightly overrating Kopriva relative to Dedura-Palomero's realistic chance. We note uncertainty from missing H2H, surface specifics for this match, and recent schedule strength, so this is a small-value, medium-risk play rather than a large, robust overlay.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the away player is ~31.25%, our model uses 32.5%
• • Career win rates: Kopriva 63% vs Dedura-Palomero 50%, but recent form and event level narrow the gap
• • Both players have experience on hard and clay so surface is unlikely to strongly favor Kopriva