Vit Kopriva vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~52.4% vs our estimate 56%
• • Minimum fair odds 1.786; current 1.909 offers positive edge

Pros

• + Larger career match sample and better win-loss record in provided data
• + Documented grass experience compared with opponent's recent clay results

Cons

• - Close market pricing indicates uncertainty; small samples at Challenger level increase variance
• - No head-to-head or recent grass-form detail for either player in the Research, raising model uncertainty

Details

We view value on Vit Kopriva. The market prices are nearly even (home 1.909 implied 52.4%, away 1.926 implied 51.9%) but Kopriva's career sample in the Research shows more matches (43-25) and explicitly lists grass among surfaces played, while Pablo Llamas Ruiz has a smaller sample (20-18) with recent results noted on clay. Given Kopriva's larger match volume, slightly better win-loss, and grass experience, we believe the true win probability exceeds the market's implied probability for the home side. Adjusting for a modest uncertainty premium (Challenger-level variance and limited head-to-head info), we estimate Kopriva's true win probability at 56.0%, which requires minimum decimal odds of 1.786 to be fair. The current home price of 1.909 therefore offers positive value (EV = 0.069 per 1 unit stake after our probability adjustment). We account for market vig and tournament level when sizing our confidence.

Key factors

• • Kopriva has a larger match sample and superior overall record in the provided data (43-25 vs 20-18)
• • Kopriva is documented as having played on grass; Llamas' recent results in Research are on clay
• • Market prices are nearly even, leaving room for small edges after accounting for surface and experience