Highlights

• • Kopriva’s 1.25 price implies an 80% win chance that the profiles don’t support
• • At a 36% win probability Michalski at 3.8 yields a +36.8% expected return

Pros

• + Large margin between implied probability and our estimate creates clear positive EV
• + Both players’ records and surface histories suggest the match is closer than market indicates

Cons

• - Recent match-level data shows both players losing, increasing short-term variance
• - No head-to-head or injury information in the provided research to refine the estimate

Details

We view the market price (Vit Kopriva 1.25 -> implied 80% win chance) as overstating Kopriva's advantage. The provided player profiles show nearly identical career records over the same span (Kopriva 43-25, Michalski 43-28) and both players arriving with recent losing results on comparable surfaces. Given those factors, a fair assessment is that Michalski's true chance is materially higher than the market-implied 26.3% at 3.8. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 36% for Michalski and the quoted 3.8 decimal price, EV = 0.36 * 3.8 - 1 = 0.368 (36.8% ROI). Odds used for EV: 3.8.

Key factors

• • Comparable career records (Kopriva 43-25 vs Michalski 43-28) imply near parity
• • Recent form shows both players losing their latest events — no clear form edge
• • Both players have experience on the same surfaces listed (clay, hard), limiting surface bias
• • Market heavily favours Kopriva at 1.25 (80% implied), creating a large discrepancy with plausible win probabilities