Vitaliy Sachko vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Highlights

• • Tirante is the clear market favorite at 1.373 but our estimated win chance (70%) is slightly below implied probability.
• • Sachko's price (3.19) would need to be ≤3.03 to show value given conservative probability assumptions; current quote is marginally longer but not convincingly supported by data.

Pros

• + Market pricing is clear and reflects Tirante's slight edge based on available records.
• + No injury or external factor in the research forces a sharp deviation from market probabilities.

Cons

• - Research lacks head-to-head and detailed grass-form metrics to identify a reliable underdog edge.
• - Small differences in estimated probabilities create marginal EV, making any bet speculative.

Details

We see Thiago Agustin Tirante as the market favorite at 1.373 (implied ~72.8%) and Vitaliy Sachko as the long shot at 3.19 (implied ~31.3%). Based on the available profiles both players have comparable Challenger-level experience and grass exposure, with Tirante having a slightly better aggregate win record. With limited recent form detail and no clear injury or grass-specific advantage for Sachko in the provided research, our assessment gives Tirante a true win probability of ~70.0% (slightly below the market-implied 72.8%), which produces a negative expected value at the quoted 1.373 price. Conversely, assigning Sachko a higher true probability sufficient to justify the 3.19 price is not supported by the available data. Therefore neither side offers demonstrable positive EV at current widely-available prices and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Tirante (implied probability ~72.8%)
• • Both players have Challenger-level experience and grass exposure; no clear surface edge in provided data
• • Available win-loss records are similar; no injury or H2H info to justify diverging from market