Highlights

• • Sachko has grass experience; Pereira appears not to
• • Market requires Sachko to be ~71% to break even; we estimate ~62%

Pros

• + Clear surface advantage for Sachko
• + Book price clearly favors the home player

Cons

• - Market price for Sachko is too short to offer value
• - Limited detailed recent form/injury data to push estimate much higher

Details

We view Vitaliy Sachko as the surface favorite on grass given his documented grass experience while Tiago Pereira's record shows play only on clay and hard. Based on surface fit and comparable overall records, we estimate Sachko's true win probability at 62%. The current market prices (Sachko 1.41, implied 70.9%) overstate his chances relative to our view. At Sachko 1.41 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.62 * 1.41 - 1 = -0.126), so there is no value to back the favorite at current odds. Pereira's price (2.94, implied 34.0%) would require him to have a >34.0% true chance to be +EV; given his apparent lack of grass history and Sachko's advantage we estimate Pereira's true chance below that threshold, so that side also lacks value.

Key factors

• • Surface: grass favors Sachko who has grass matches listed; Pereira shows clay/hard only
• • Market implied probability for Sachko (70.9%) exceeds our estimated true probability (62%)
• • No injury or H2H data provided; recent form on clay for both is mixed and not decisive