Vitaliy Sachko vs Tiago Pereira
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see Sachko as the stronger grass-court player but the market price (1.412) overstates his edge versus our 68% estimate, so there is no positive EV at current odds.
Highlights
- • Sachko favored on grass, Pereira lacks recorded grass matches
- • Required odds for value: ≥1.471; market: 1.412 -> negative EV
Pros
- + Surface profile favors the home player (Sachko)
- + Market already reflects favorite status, so match likely to go as expected
Cons
- - Current price is too short to offer value based on our probability estimate
- - Lack of H2H and limited grass-surface sample for Pereira increases outcome variance
Details
We compared the market price (Vitaliy Sachko 1.412, implied 70.8%) to our estimated true win probability of 68.0%. Sachko's grass experience and Pereira's profile showing no recorded grass matches justify a clear favorite lean toward Sachko, but the market already prices Sachko slightly above our estimate. At our 68% estimate the break-even decimal odds are 1.471; the current best-available market price of 1.412 is below that threshold, producing a negative expected value. Given the limited additional edge from form and absence of head-to-head data, we cannot justify a positive-value bet at the current price.
Key factors
- • Surface: grass (outdoor) — Sachko has recorded matches on grass; Pereira's profile lists only clay and hard
- • Market-implied probability for Sachko (1.412) = ~70.8%, which is above our estimated 68%
- • Recent form for both shows mixed results on clay; no clear form advantage that flips the value
- • No head-to-head data provided, adding uncertainty that reduces confidence in a large edge