Vito Tonejc vs Erik Schiessl
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Vito is underpriced by the market relative to our conservative 53% estimate, but current odds (1.65) produce negative EV so we pass.
Highlights
- • Vito estimated true win probability: 53%
- • Market-implied probability for Vito: 60.6% (1.65) — no value
Pros
- + Vito has winning overall record (8-7) and experience on clay and hard courts
- + Home/favored status reflected in current market price
Cons
- - Small sample size and mixed recent form reduce estimate reliability
- - No information on Erik Schiessl or match surface/conditions increases uncertainty
Details
We estimate Vito Tonejc's true win probability at ~53% based on his 8-7 career record, mixed recent form, and experience on clay and hard courts. The market is pricing Vito at 1.65 (implied 60.6%), which is significantly shorter than our modelled probability and therefore offers negative expected value. With the opponent unknown and limited sample size (15 career matches) our confidence is low and we decline to back either side — the underdog price (2.12) also fails to offer positive EV against our baseline estimate. Given the information available, we require a minimum decimal price of ~1.887 to consider backing Vito; at the current 1.65 there is no value.
Key factors
- • Limited player data: Vito Tonejc has a 15-match sample (8-7), reducing projection confidence
- • Market price implies Vito is ~60.6% likely to win (1/1.65), higher than our 53% estimate
- • Opponent details and surface for this USA match are not provided, increasing uncertainty