Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Hollender (1.34) despite a 1-6 recent record
• • Home price 3.05 implies 32.8% — our conservative estimate is 45%, creating value

Pros

• + Significant gap between implied and estimated true probability
• + Hollender’s recent form on hard suggests overpricing by the market

Cons

• - We have no provided performance data for Vitor, increasing uncertainty
• - Small sample size for Hollender means higher variance around the estimate

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to a conservative estimate of true win chance. The market prices Nicolas Hollender (away) at 1.34 => implied win probability 74.6%, and Vitor (home) at 3.05 => implied probability 32.8%. Research shows Hollender has a poor recent record (1-6 across seven matches, all on hard), which suggests his true win probability is materially below the market-implied 74.6%. There is limited information on Vitor in the provided research, so we conservatively adjust for uncertainty but still downgrade Hollender sharply from the market price. We estimate the home player’s true win probability at 45%, which is well above the implied 32.8% (home), producing positive expected value at the current home price (EV = 0.45 * 3.05 - 1 = 0.3725). Given the clear disconnect between Hollender’s documented form and the heavy market favoritism toward him, backing the home underdog at 3.05 represents value.

Key factors

• • Hollender recent record 1-6 (hard courts) indicates poor form
• • Market-implied probability for Hollender (74.6%) appears excessive given his recent results
• • Limited data on Vitor increases uncertainty but market gap (32.8% implied for home) provides clear value opportunity