Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1.05) far exceeds our conservative estimate (0.92).
• • Home price (10.0) would require ≥10% upset probability to be +EV, which we do not assign.

Pros

• + Avoids taking a small negative-expectation wager on a heavy favorite.
• + Conservative stance protects bankroll against unseen factors given no research inputs.

Cons

• - If true win probability for the favorite is higher than our conservative 92%, we miss a small positive edge.
• - No bet does not exploit potential bookmaker errors if our probability is too low.

Details

We view the quoted prices as heavily skewed toward Timothee Andriveau (1.05 decimal) implying ~95.2% win probability. We lack any external data on surface, injuries, form, or H2H, so we apply a conservative subjective estimate for Andriveau's true win probability of 92.0% (0.92) to account for uncertainty and potential bookmaker margin. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price for profit is 1.087; the current market price of 1.05 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.92 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.034). The long-price on Vivek Kolluru (10.0) would require him to have ≥10.0% chance of winning to be +EV; we assess his realistic upset probability well below that given the market and lack of contradictory evidence. Therefore we recommend no bet—prices do not offer value relative to our conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Extreme market price heavily favors the away player (low upside on favorite)
• • No external data on surface, injuries, or recent form increases uncertainty
• • Conservative probability estimate still implies current favorite price is overpriced